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Water AlliesTier 2
at The Philippine Grand Archive MNL Regionals by Heralds' Peak - Wolves Den
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.5% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 68.8% | +10.8 |
| Wind Allies | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 54.8% | +3.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.7% | -13.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.8% | -3.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.9% | +0.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteemed Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Hired Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowdancer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |